I WAS IN A NEWSAGENCY the other day and as I went to offer money to the man at the counter I noticed he was engrossed in reading a story in a newspaper.
He didn’t notice me at first, being so engrossed, but when he did I learned of the reason for his focus on that article. It could just herald the eventual doom of his profession.
‘These iPads“, he said with a hint of foreboding in his voice, “The newspaper publishers would like nothing more than to sell directly to their readers on the devices… no printing costs.
“The iPad apparently shows advertisements well. So the papers could pay for their publishing on the devices through advertising… no need for advertising in print.”
What was unsaid but clearly behind his statement was the fear that the proliferation of these digital padlike devices could threaten his business and that of his industry.
“Maybe you need to think of how your business could get into a market that was compatible with this technology”, I suggested, having no idea at all of how this could be done.
“We can’t”, was his short and resigned reply.
A real threat?
No matter how prolific electronic readers and multimedia devices like the iPad become, there will remain a market for the printed word. That, however, might be a diminished market.
It won’t happen for some years but it will start to happen as the devices follow Moors Law, which stipulates that computer processing power doubles and priced fall drastically every 18 months to two years. There is a bottom line below which prices cannot fall, of course, or the business of those producing the devices would be threatened.
But fall they will and I anticipate we will see economy, dumbed-down but otherwise adequate versions of digital pads. They won’t have the capacity or pizzaz of Apple’s product, of course, but it is possible they will fill a new market niche analogous to the way that cheap, low powered notebooks have done in relationship to laptops.
A disruptive technology?
Technologies that disrupt existing industries and processes are known as ‘disruptive technologies’.
The term appears most often in relation to digital devices and we don’t have to think too hard to identify them:
- computers disrupted business, educational and individual ways of doing things starting in the 1970s and into the 1980s
- the Internet disrupted established means of communication in the 1990s and continues to do so
- the mobile phone disrupted the existing telecommunications system
- and the appearance of converged handheld devices like the iPhone and similar from Google and others, that incorporate a telephone among many other tools, has disrupted a great many ways by which we did things. And more is to come.
Few of these developments, however, put established industries out of business, but they did diminish them. The introduction of computing into business certainly did force some business out. But the Internet and email have not put an end to the post office and nor has the mobile phone put an end to the conventional landline tethered to a plug in the wall (limited, low capacity devices they appear to be, today). Likewise, having a digital communications and entertainment devices that tell the time of day and that fit into a pocket have not put wristwatch manufacturers out of business.
Similarly, the widescale adoption of digital pads is unlikely to put the newsagent out of business although the technology holds the potential to reduce the economic viability of their business.
Threat already over the horizon
Look no further than Apple’s website for a hint of why newsagents might be about to reconsider their future. There, in full colour is an iPad with a downloaded copy of the New York Times on the screen. Already, Wired magazine and others are developing iPad versions.
Here is the threat of disruption for newsagents: people can now buy a subscription to the publication they like to read and have it delivered immediately, via wi-fi, into their digital pad. Newsagent bypassed. And if that newsagent I spoke with is right, advertisers might start to reduce their print newspaper advertising in favour for the same on the pad. Only it won’t be the same because, unlike the print version, that on the pad will move and change and will embed a link directly to the businesses’ website. Were this scenario to unfold, how long until the continued production of the printed newspaper came into question?
The availability of numerous news links on the Internet could lead to a reduced, economy print format edition of a newspaper, of course, but how would it compete with the online version except among those nostalgics who like the texture of newsprint, the presence of paper mites and using old newspaper to mulch their vegetable gardens?
A subscription for a digital, pad-read newspaper, magazine or newsletter could be offered in a deal that includes the capacity to download updates to breaking stories as well as new items. Newspaper websites already update constantly, so there are no technical barriers to doing this.
Saving the newspaper
Some of the digerati have been closely watching the shrinking sales of printed newspapers and wondering when they will close their doors and go completely digital.
Now, we see companies like Apple offering the newspaper industry a lifeline by going digital. Just as podcasts have been something of a lifesaver for radio and iView is something similar for ABC broadcast television, will we now see the iPad save the newspaper by destroying it? This is what they mean by ‘creative destruction’ — the destruction of something established to recreate it in a new form.
But will people buy subscriptions? Rupert Murdoch might have had an inkling of trends when he announced that News Limited is going to charge for content. When he announced the move, it seems he was thinking of some kind of subscription model or a pay-per-story charge. Now he can sell The Australian and the rest of his stable of publications for a yearly or some other length of subscription. It is unlikely that he will close the printed editions of his tabloids, however, as these sell well to a lower socioeconomic demographic, the same demographic that is less than likely to go out and buy an iPad or some cheaper look-alike.
When Murdoch announced his intention, people responded by threatening not to buy the newspapers. Now, perhaps, the ease of reading on an iPad and similar devices may lead readers to rethink.
This is not good news to the newsagent and his industry. For decades, the local newsagent has been the distributor of information via sales of newspapers and magazines. Now, that role has been largely superseded by online media.
What will drive the consumption of news and information on an iPad is what marks it off as being so different to doing so in a newspaper or magazine. It is this: information on a digital pad is rich media. That is, it can be instantly updated, linked via hypertext to associated documents, carry still images, sound files and embedded video. This print cannot do. And, while these things can already be obtained on a laptop, it is the portability, the light weight and the ease of use of the digital pad that gives it the edge.
I wondered, when Apple launched its iPad, whether the market for the devices would be as large as some industry observers anticipated. A success, sure, but would the device enable users to do what they already do in a better way or to do things they could not do now?
Now I think I know. The device and the other-branded clones that will surely follow hold a greater potential than I imagined, and one that is likely to grow with each new version of the device and its software.
This, certainly, is disruptive technology and reading, for some, will never have been a richer experience.
